IS THE TRANS AND NON-BINARY FAD OVER?
There has been a sharp decline in the proportion of young people who identify as transgender and non-binary. That is the central conclusion of a new report, “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity Among Young Americans,” written by Eric Kaufmann, a professor of politics at the University of Buckingham. He examined several large studies, private and public, drawing conclusions from each; he ends by offering a composite picture, based on the data from these sources.
It would be an exaggeration to say that this cultural phenomenon has totally run its course—too many elites have invested themselves, either ideologically or financially, for that to happen—but it does appear that this destructive fad is in remission. Here are some of the seminal findings, taken from Kaufmann’s report.
- After surging in the 2010s and 20s, trans and queer identities are in decline among young Americans
- The transgender share among university students peaked in 2023 and has almost halved since, from nearly 7 percent to under 4 percent
- The share of students identifying as not heterosexual fell around 10 points in the same period
- The decline in non-heterosexual share is concentrated in the queer and other sexual categories (i.e. pansexual, asexual) and, to a lesser extent, bisexuality
Among Ivy League students, in 2023, 7 percent said they were neither male nor female, but in 2025 that figured dropped to 3 percent. Among the college-prep students at Andover Phillips Academy in Massachusetts, the biggest drop was recorded by bisexual students: after increasing from 10 to 17 percent between 2020 and 2023, it fell back to 12 percent in 2025. Nationwide, 95 percent of young people identified as heterosexual in 2010, but in 2022 the figure was 71 percent; today it is back to 81 percent.
“It appears that trans and queer are going out of fashion among young people,” Kaufmann writes, “especially in elite settings.” That’s good news, especially from a mental health perspective. “In survey data,” he says, “LGBT young people report consistently worse mental health than heterosexual young people.” To wit: Trans and queer young people are considerably more likely to be depressed.
Kaufmann looks at some of the reasons why fewer young people are attracted to the trans and queer movement, but is not persuaded by any of them. There is one factor he didn’t mention but is worth considering.
The pro-trans movement in the United States and Europe was very strong in the 2010s, but there was relatively little pushback until the 20s; it has picked up quite a bit in the past few years. The medical community in Europe, and to a lesser extent in the United States, has reconsidered its earlier advocacy of gender-affirming practices. For example, there is growing evidence that puberty blockers, chemical castration and sex-reassignment surgery is deleterious to the psychological and physical wellbeing of young people.
This has spawned a growth in the number of detransitioners, mostly young women who want to recapture their nature-ordained sex. The number of public testimonials, describing in vivid detail what they have endured, has certainly convinced many of their friends to tap the brakes. To be exact, we know that the majority of those who don’t act impulsively on their itch to “transition” refrain from doing so in a relatively short period of time.
If this analysis is correct, we should expect that the trans and queer phenomenon not to return to its peak level. We have reached a tipping point, and that is good news for everyone, save those who make a living off of exploiting disturbed young people.